China Signal — Timeline Index
Episodic, topic-bound threads stitched from the daily digest. Each note tracks one storyline in reverse chronology so you can read a narrative arc in 60 seconds.
Active Threads
- Ma Xingrui & Politburo Fracture — 🔴 hot — Politburo member removed under anomalous circumstances; possible factional shift
- PLA Internal Pressure — 🟠 building — Xi-led military meeting flagged as purge precursor; image crisis in state media
- Taiwan Pressure Campaign — 🔴 escalating — Multi-vector coercion staged around rumored Trump visit
- Xi-Trump Diplomacy Track — 🟡 pivot point — Iran war reshuffles the board before the visit
- Iran War — China Role — 🟠 proxy stage — US blockade gives Xi anti-hegemony frame; energy pivot to Central Asia
Reading the Colors
- 🔴 Hot — active movement this week, watch daily
- 🟠 Building — trajectory clear, 2–3 week horizon
- 🟡 Pivot — waiting on a catalyst
- ⚪ Dormant — on ice until signal returns
The Current Through-Line
Regime stress, externalized. Internal fracture (Ma Xingrui, PLA meeting) is being managed by hardening external posture (Taiwan, anti-US framing via Iran). Historical pattern — internal weakness produces external aggression, not restraint. Single most useful tell: what Global Times doesn’t print (silent on Ma Xingrui and the PLA meeting).