Hormuz Watch — Daily Maritime & Energy Intelligence Digest

Date: 2026-07-20 (Mon) · Coverage window: ~Jul 6–20 (gap since last digest 2026-06-22) Bottom line: The June de-escalation is dead. The Islamabad Memorandum has broken down; United States and Iran traded airstrikes through the weekend, IRGC has resumed attacks on shipping (≥9 vessels hit since Jul 6, crew fatalities), and Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed again — Day ~141 of the crisis. Brent Crude up ~14% on the week to high- $80 s / l o w -$ 90s.

1. Situation snapshot

MoU collapse: The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum (signed 17 Jun, Pakistan-brokered, 60-day toll-free reopening) has unraveled. Weekend of Jul 18–19 saw fresh exchanges of drone/missile strikes.
Open/closed dispute: CENTCOM insists the strait “is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit.” Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) says passage “is currently not possible.” The IMO has warned owners the strait is too dangerous to transit.
Net effect: Whatever the rhetoric, commercial traffic has collapsed to near-zero vs. pre-war norms; the mid-channel route remains mined and unusable.

2. Shipping & transit traffic

Traffic collapse: ~10 transits on Jul 12 vs ~88/day normal; 14 ships (4 crude tankers) on Sun Jul 13 — down ~60% from 37 same day prior week; 8 transits Thu Jul 16, a three-week low (from 15 the day before).
CENTCOM says >8 million barrels transited on a recent Sunday with military assistance — US-escorted convoys along the Oman-coast corridor are now the only functioning flow.
Routing fight: Iran is trying to force vessels through its territorial waters instead of the US-protected Omani route; refusals draw attacks.
IRGC claims it “stopped” four ships attempting transit (Jul 18).

3. Naval operations & attacks

≥9 ships attacked since Jul 6 (anti-ship missiles per security officials). Jul 16: crude tanker Al Bahyah hit off Oman — 1 seafarer killed, 3 injured; Mombasa B attacked same day — 11 mariners injured.
Jul 18: IRGC says two tankers exploded on mines south of the strait, blaming “deceptive American intelligence” for routing them into the minefield.
US strike campaign: CENTCOM resumed its naval blockade (~Jul 14) and has run 6+ consecutive nights of strikes — hitting Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Jask, Chah Bahar, Konarak, Abu Musa; targets include coastal defenses, missile/drone sites, naval assets, command centers. Jul 15: US also struck a tanker attempting to skirt its blockade.
Iranian retaliation: strikes on US targets across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Syria — regionalization risk is live.

4. Oil & energy markets

Brent Crude: $88.10 * * (J u l 17, + 4.6$ 90.70 intraday; +14% on the week. WTI ~** $82.61 * * (J u l 20) . C o m p a re$ 78.24 at the June reopening low — the entire MoU discount has been erased and inverted.
Driver is pure supply-security repricing: escalating US–Iran confrontation plus near-total Hormuz curtailment (~25% of seaborne oil, ~20% of global LNG normally transit).

5. Logistics & insurance

Hull war-risk premiums ~5% of vessel value is the new market norm, quoted range 3–10% (vs 0.25% pre-war). A $100 Mt ank er : * *$ 3–10M per transit** vs ~$250k baseline. One tracker prices war-risk at 8.0× pre-crisis with 6 P&I clubs withdrawing cover.
Per-voyage cost inflation estimated +$1.5–4.5M (Fairway ETA). Premiums softened post-MoU, then spiked again after the mid-July attacks (Lloyd’s Market Association).
Hapag-Lloyd war-risk surcharge up to $3,500/container on Gulf-touching cargo. London insurers report falling inquiry volume — owners are simply not attempting transit.

6. Diplomatic track

Doha Talks (early Jul) centered on the toll question: US arguing Iran gains more from a nuclear deal than strait tolls; framing circulating as “strait in exchange for the bomb.”
Core dispute unresolved: Iran claims joint sovereignty with Oman and intends to charge passage fees after the 60-day window; US position is the strait is an international waterway and any new regime needs Gulf-state endorsement. Donald Trump had claimed it would be “permanently toll-free.”
Weekend strike exchanges have overtaken the negotiating track; 60-day MoU window (nominally to ~mid-Aug) looks moot absent a new ceasefire.

7. Watch items (next 24–72h)

Whether US–Iran strike exchanges continue or a ceasefire channel (Doha/Pakistan) reactivates.
Escorted-convoy throughput on the Oman-coast corridor — does CENTCOM sustain >8M bbl/day windows or do attacks shut it too?
Further IRGC interdictions/minings; any attack on a US-flagged or escorted vessel would be a major escalation trigger.
P&I / war-risk market: additional cover withdrawals would freeze even convoy traffic.
Brent Crude path through $90+; watch for demand-destruction commentary and SPR/IEA release chatter.
Iranian retaliation footprint in Gulf host states (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait) — regionalization would reprice everything again.

Sources

Generated automatically by Hormuz Watch daily task. Figures are point-in-time open-source estimates; re-verify before operational use. Note: no digests were generated between 2026-06-22 and 2026-07-20; this entry bridges the gap.

Hormuz Watch — 2026-07-20