Hormuz Watch — 2026-07-23

BLUF

The war just grew a second chokepoint. Houthis declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia (Jul 20) and struck two Saudi tankers — Encelia and Layla — in the Red Sea with missiles and drones (Jul 22), putting Bab el-Mandeb in play alongside a Hormuz that trackers now grade effectively closed (Day ~144). CENTCOM is on its 12th consecutive night of strikes; Brent ripped to $98.49 (+4.6%), highest since late May. Marco Rubio: Iran is “begging for a deal” but “not ready” — diplomacy alive, not imminent.

NEW FRONT — Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb

Houthis imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia Jul 20; Jul 22 they hit two Saudi oil tankers (Encelia — bow fire, crew safe; Layla) with ballistic/cruise missiles and drones for “violating” it.
Analysts flag major energy-supply implications: Saudi’s Red Sea route was the workaround for Hormuz-constrained exports (east–west pipeline → Yanbu). Both exits from the Gulf are now contested.
Watch for Bab el-Mandeb war-risk repricing and reroutes back to the Cape even for Red Sea legs.

Strait Status & Shipping

Trackers grade Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic as of Jul 22 (straits.live “Day 144”). 15 transits Jul 19 vs ~88/day pre-crisis baseline.
Caveat: real counts likely higher — widespread AIS dark transits and GPS manipulation.
Oman + IMO running a coordinated traffic-management scheme (Notice to Mariners): phased convoys through temporary routing corridors, designated holding areas, strict comms protocols.
Blockade enforcement: CENTCOM redirected 9 commercial vessels and “disabled” 1 defying the closure of Iranian ports.

Naval / Military Ops

11th consecutive night of strikes (Jul 22): Iranian ops centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage, military logistics. 12th night (Jul 23) included the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq — 2 killed, 11 wounded per Iranian reporting.
Stated objective unchanged: degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels; posture remains coordination/safe-lane guidance (Project Freedom), not convoy escort.
Trump renewing threats of further escalation; IRGC attack tempo on shipping continues despite three weeks of strikes — degradation thesis still unproven.

Energy Markets

Brent ** $98.49/ bb l * * e a r l y J u l 23 (+ 4.6$ 3.02 d/d) — highest since late May. Drivers: Red Sea tanker attacks + renewed US escalation threats. $100 psychological level in reach.
TTF gas above €59–60/MWh, a four-month high, as strikes outweigh talk of diplomacy. Europe is mid pre-winter restocking; every week of Qatari halt tightens the winter balance.
QatarEnergy paused its LNG ramp-up after the Al Rekayyat strike; Ras Laffan held at minimum ops, dockings cut. Qatari flow through the strait remains all-but-halted since the war began.
War-risk premiums 3–10% of hull value (~5% the “new norm” vs 0.25% pre-war); Chubb announced dedicated Hormuz war-risk cover — first sign of insurers leaning back in; governments increasingly acting as insurers of last resort.

Logistics & Supply Chain

Jebel Ali operations reported “normal” Jul 21 (Lloyd’s List) — but that’s throughput on suppressed inbound volume, not recovery.
Diversion tempo easing off the +360% peak while congestion stays elevated at absorption ports: Khorfakkan (46% of redirected Jebel Ali cargo), Fujairah (17%), Navi Mumbai, Jeddah, Salalah.
If Bab el-Mandeb reprices, Jeddah stops being a safe absorption valve — Gulf AND Red Sea cargo would compete for Cape routings simultaneously.

Diplomacy

Marco Rubio (Jul 23): Iran privately “begging for a deal” but “not ready”; Tehran will “pay a very heavy price.” Iran: progress in talks, but no deal “imminent.”
Negotiations continue on the June 17 MoU framework even as both sides strike — a settlement remains the fastest path to reopening; neither side has left the table.

Watchpoints

Bab el-Mandeb repricing — do underwriters treat the Red Sea as a second war zone? Twin-chokepoint closure is the true global-shock scenario.
Saudi response to the Houthi blockade/tanker strikes — retaliation in Yemen would formally widen the war to the GCC’s biggest producer.
Brent $100 — a close above it forces the demand-destruction conversation and raises SPR/price-intervention odds.
Oman/IMO corridor scheme — first structured reopening mechanism; if convoy slots hold without strikes, it’s the template for de-escalation.
Qatari LNG restart — Ras Laffan at minimum ops with Europe restocking; TTF is the tell.
Deal tempo — Rubio’s “begging” framing suggests leverage-testing, not collapse. Watch for a ceasefire-for-blockade-relief formula.

Hormuz Watch — Daily Digest