Hormuz Watch — 2026-07-25

BLUF

The war widened on two axes while the Trump decision stayed pending. Saudi Arabia struck Houthi-held Hodeidah and Kamaran Island Jul 24 — yesterday’s Watchpoint 4 triggered: the GCC anchor producer is now a combatant, and the Houthis vow Riyadh “will pay.” Iran answered the 13-night air campaign with its widest GCC salvo of the cycle: drones/missiles at Bahrain (sirens, intercepts), Kuwait (“hostile drones”), Jordan, and northern Iraq, with fresh claimed strikes Jul 25. Donald Trump met advisers Friday on expanded military options but publicly softened — “locked and loaded… but we’re talking,” Iran “getting more serious.” Meanwhile a second supply shock opened outside the Gulf: Ukrainian drones hit four tankers in four days at Novorossiysk, suspending CPC loadings (~1.58 mb/d, ~80% of Kazakh exports). Brent closed ** $100.69 J u l 23 * * (f i rs t >$ 100 close since May 22), faded below $98 Friday — still +12% on the week.

Strait Status & Shipping

straits.live grades Strait of Hormuz closed, Day 146. No fresh transit count published for Jul 24–25; baseline remains Jul 23’s single tanker crossing, zero entries (lowest since May 7). Residual movement is transponders-off through the Iran-controlled northern corridor.
Reference points for the week’s collapse: Jul 19 = 15 transits (~17% of pre-crisis ~88/day); at least nine ships attacked since Jul 6 as Iran forces traffic into its territorial waters. Attack on the Oman-side “protected” route (Jul 17) killed the workaround’s premise; three southern-corridor strikes Jul 20–21 (Kavomaleas, Acheloos, Kaifan) killed the route.
Blockade enforcement escalated: US says it disabled a commercial ship attempting to evade the blockade on Iranian ports (Jul 24–25) — second shooting enforcement after the Belma. The blockade is now demonstrated policy, not a declared one.
Insurance: war-risk at ~8× pre-crisis, 7.5–10% of hull value (vs ~0.25% pre-war); six P&I clubs have withdrawn cover. Cover exists on paper; voyage economics increasingly don’t.
Bab el-Mandeb transits -30% (29 vessels vs 41 Monday) — the Red Sea relief valve is closing while Hormuz stays shut.
Maersk Hormuz suspension and Jebel Ali/Cape diversions hold; ~6,000 seafarers still trapped, IMO evacuation scheme still stalled.

Naval / Military Ops

CENTCOM completed its 13th consecutive night Jul 23; no 14th-night release posted at time of writing. Whether the target list widens beyond maritime architecture (power grid, Pickaxe Mountain) is the tell on Trump’s decision.
Iran’s widest GCC salvo of the cycle (Jul 24–25): Bahrain’s military “intercepted and destroyed several treacherous Iranian aerial attacks” (sirens Friday morning); Kuwait armed forces engaging “hostile drones”; projectiles toward Jordan; explosions near a US base in northern Iraq. Iran claimed fresh drone strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait Jul 25.
Saudi Arabia struck Hodeidah (telecom authority facilities) and Kamaran Island Jul 24 — first Saudi kinetic response of the crisis, after Houthi hits on the Encelia and Layla. Houthi foreign ministry: the strike “will prove costly.”
US interceptor stockpile depletion is now headline-level (CBS) — sustainment, not capability, is becoming the US constraint to watch alongside Iran’s degraded-but-active launch tempo.
Trump met top advisers Friday behind closed doors on significantly expanding military action; no order reported. Domestic overlay: War Powers clock running, Schiff resolution pending floor action.

Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb — Saudi Front Opens

The Saudi strike on Hodeidah converts the Houthi blockade of Saudi shipping from harassment into a two-way GCC front. Escalation ladder from yesterday now has rungs on both sides: Houthi tanker strikes → Saudi strikes → promised Houthi response.
Trump doctrine holds: US will treat Houthi attacks as Iranian acts — collapsing Red Sea and Gulf fronts into a single decision tree. A Houthi response to Riyadh now risks triggering the US “massive attack” option, not just Saudi retaliation.
Standing Reuters framework unchanged: Houthis positioned to close Bab el-Mandeb at Tehran’s direction if the US strikes Iran’s power grid. Watch grid targets on any 14th/15th strike night as the Bab el-Mandeb trigger.

NEW FRONT — Black Sea / CPC

Ukrainian drones hit four tankers in four days loading Kazakh crude at Novorossiysk (CPC terminal): ASIA, NISSOS IOS (fire), then Nelsa — loadings suspended again Jul 20 and flows remain disrupted.
Exposure: ~1.58 mb/d, ~80% of Kazakhstan’s exports, ~1% of global supply — a second chokepoint failure stacking on Hormuz in an already short market. Kazakhstan formally told Ukraine to stop attacking the terminal.
Strategic read: the oil market is now absorbing two uncorrelated supply shocks (Gulf + Black Sea). Barrels lost at Novorossiysk remove the spare-supply cushion that was dampening the Hormuz premium.

Energy Markets

Brent: ** $100.69 se ttl e J u l 23 * * — f i rs t c l ose ab o v e$ 100 since May 22 — then <$98 Friday Jul 25; still +12% w/w. Same pattern as yesterday: the market prices the decision, not the noise. Triple digits held for one session without the “massive attack” order.
Fade-below-$98 despite Saudi entry + CPC outage says traders still see off-ramps (Trump’s “we’re talking” line). That’s a thin thesis with two chokepoints impaired.
TTF gas holds its July ramp (~+42% m/m, four-month peak); QatarEnergy LNG recovery still hostage to the strait.
Watch: US sanctions on Iranian oil fully reimposed (Gen. License X1 expired Jul 17) — no authorized Iranian barrels to backfill; SPR/demand-destruction debate activates on a sustained >$100 close.

Diplomacy

Two-track signaling, same White House: Friday options meeting on expanded strikes and Trump saying Iran is “getting more serious”/“far more serious” in talks, “while we’re talking, we’ll see what comes of it.” Coercive ambiguity is the strategy; yesterday’s Axios “massive attack” line was the stick side of the same message.
No confirmed movement on the rejected ceasefire proposal; June 17 MoU remains dead, no replacement mechanism visible. Qatar still the live mediator channel.
Contradiction watch from yesterday resolved slightly toward talks: Iran’s rejection (Time) vs Rubio’s “begging” now vs Trump’s “more serious” — the White House is choosing to advertise progress. Either talks are real, or the record is being built to justify the strike.

Watchpoints

Houthi response to the Hodeidah strike — the next 48h defines whether the Saudi front stays contained (tit-for-tat in Yemen) or goes systemic (Saudi export infrastructure, Bab el-Mandeb closure). Trump’s Iran-accountability doctrine makes any major Houthi hit a US decision point too.
14th/15th strike-night target list — power grid or Pickaxe Mountain in the release = the widening has begun, and per standing reporting, grid strikes trigger the Houthi Bab el-Mandeb move. Maritime-only targets = ambiguity holds.
Trump go/no-go — Friday’s advisers meeting produced no order. Leading indicators unchanged: refueling/carrier surges, embassy drawdowns, NEO advisories. “While we’re talking” is the current brake; watch for talks language disappearing.
CPC restoration vs repeat strikes — each additional day of suspended Novorossiysk loadings (~1.58 mb/d) tightens the market floor under Brent regardless of Hormuz headlines. A fifth tanker hit would push insurers toward Black Sea withdrawal — Hormuz-style.
Blockade shooting incidents — two disabled ships in ten days. An incident with casualties on a third-flag vessel internationalizes the blockade question overnight.
Interceptor sustainment — depletion reporting is the first crack in the assumption the US can run this air war indefinitely. Watch for rationed intercepts over GCC partners → political strain in Kuwait/Bahrain/Jordan.
**Brent $98-100 ban d * * — s u s t ain e d c l ose >$ 100 without a new headline = structural repricing of the two-shock reality; fade toward $95 = market calling everyone’s bluff again.

Delta vs Jul 24 Digest

Watchpoint 4 (Saudi response) TRIGGERED — Hodeidah/Kamaran strikes.
Watchpoint 1 (Trump go/no-go) OPEN — advisers met, no order, rhetoric softened.
Watchpoint 3 (rejection vs “begging”) PARTIALLY RESOLVED — White House now advertising “more serious” talks.
New front added: Black Sea/CPC (absent from all prior digests; strikes began Jul 19–20).
Strait: single-transit floor holds; no new count published.

Hormuz Watch — Daily Digest