Hormuz Watch — 2026-08-06

Top line

Draft done, pen hovering. Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized the draft corridor agreement; it now awaits approval from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Trump says an announcement could come “Wednesday or Thursday”; Axios reports the US wanted it today, wrapped with a resumed ceasefire and restarted nuclear talks. A Gulf official puts odds at 50-50 by Friday, and Iran’s deputy FM cautions a signed deal does NOT automatically reopen the strait. Brent slid to ~ $79.43— s u b -$ 80 for the first time since the crisis began — floored only by ongoing Red Sea attacks.

Deal mechanics (new detail)

Structure: inbound Gulf traffic routed through an Iranian-controlled corridor; outbound through an Oman-administered route. “Service fees” charged for security and environmental protection.
The fight is the fee: Tehran wants 5–7% of cargo value; Muscat proposes 3%. On a ~ $100 M V L CC c a r g o t ha t^{'} s a$ 5–7M toll — worse than most war-risk premiums, and a de facto Iranian tax on Gulf exports if it sticks.
Tehran’s reciprocity condition: any reopening depends on the US lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran still insists talks are bilateral with Oman only; Washington still sells a US-Iran deal. The framing gap from yesterday is unresolved and is now baked into the approval step.

Security / incidents

Houthi forces claim a ballistic-missile strike on a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, forcing it to turn back — the campaign against Saudi-linked shipping (8+ tankers targeted since late July) continues regardless of Hormuz diplomacy.
UKMTO: loud explosion reported near a tanker ~95 nm SE of Aden; crew safe, under investigation.
Houthis reiterate they will not allow Saudi tankers through the southern Red Sea or northern approaches until the “blockade on Yemen” is lifted — an explicit standing blockade declaration.
Strait mines remain unsurveyed; the TSS is still treated as hazardous despite the Pentagon’s secure-lane claim.

Naval ops

Transits: 8 vessels Tuesday (Kpler) vs ~130–140/day pre-crisis baseline. Day ~158 of effective closure.
IRGC willingness to fire on tankers under US air cover (July 31) remains the proof point that air-only escort can’t stop shore-launched ASCMs — physical corridor control, not escort, is what the draft deal actually trades on.
Munitions constraint unchanged: interceptor stockpiles “dangerously low,” capping US escalation options while the deal hangs.

Energy / supply chain

Brent ~ $79.43 (v s$ 83.72 yesterday), fourth straight down session; briefly lower before recovering toward $80 as Red Sea attacks reminded the market that a Hormuz deal doesn’t fix Bab el-Mandeb. Gasoline futures off ~10%.
If the 5–7% cargo fee survives, expect it to reprice freight and insurance rather than headline crude — watch tanker owners’ response before assuming normalization.
Qatar/Ras Laffan recovery still a multi-year story; Pakistan/Bangladesh LNG-driven power disruptions ongoing.

Watch items

Khamenei sign-off: the single gating event. A yes triggers the announcement wrapper (ceasefire resumption + nuclear-talks restart); a no likely snaps Brent back above $85 and revives Trump’s “hit very hard” ultimatum.
Fee resolution 3% vs 5–7% — the number determines whether tankers actually sail. Insurers won’t move on a signature alone.
Deputy FM’s caveat: agreement ≠ reopening. Sequence to watch: signature → blockade reciprocity → mine survey/clearance → insurable transits. Each step is a lag and a failure point.
Red Sea fully decoupled: Houthi Saudi-shipping blockade is now a self-sustaining second front. A Hormuz deal does not clear the Suez route.

2026-08-06 Hormuz Watch